As promised, here’s how to implement the system I posted Monday. Using facts on narrowing down the field of this 40 runner Grand National.
This Saturday the greatest jumps race in the world is taking place, The Aintree Grand National, with a packed crowd expected to be roaring on the winner of this great race. I’m going to show you how to narrow down the field to about 11 horses , eliminating the other 29 using facts I have researched. It will hopefully give you an idea of backing the winner while also showing you the horse’s with no chance of winning. Here it is:
So first off we look at the ages of the horses, horse’s older than 11 years old have not won this race since Sergeant Murphy won it in 1923. Meaning it should be safe to eliminate the 3 horses that are 12 years old, they are.
Erics Charm at 50/1
Hello Bud at 50/1
Ollie Magern at 125/1
So now we have 37 horse’s left in the field. So next we look at horse’s aged 7 or less, the last horse under 8 years old was Bogskar in 1940, so it should also be safe to eliminate these 4 who are under 8 years old, them being.
The Package at 14/1
Tricky Trickster at 16/1
Piraya at 100/1
Palypso De Creek at 100/1
Leaving the field with33 runners in the race. The next step is to look at the weight the horse has to carry in this marathon race, no horse carrying more than 11st 01lbs has won the race since Corbiere in 1983. So we eliminate those over the specific weight and have come up with 14 horse’s for elimination. They are:
Mon Mome at 7/1
Character Building at 16/1
Comply or Die at 16/1
Niche Market at 16/1
Vic Venturi at 20/1
Don’t Push It at 20/1
Cloudy Lane at 40/1
Dream Alliance at 40/1
My Will at 40/1`
Joe Lively at 50/1
Madison Du Berlais at 66/1
Nozic at 100/1
Pablo Du Charmil at 100/1
Made in Taipan at 100/1
This leaves us with 18 horses to choose from, this is where it gets tricky as we need to get the horses records for his career runs, But this is not a problem if your a paddypower on-line customer as they have a wonderful tool that shows you every horse’s form, you name the horse this tool will find it.
If your not a customer you should sign up, not just for this tool but also for the FREE £20 BET that paddypower.com are offering to new customers.
Back to the form guide, we are looking for horse’s that have won a race over a trip of 3 miles. As the last horse to have not won over this distance was Gay Tip in 1970. After checking the form guide I notice there are 6 horses who have never won over 3 miles and we eliminate them they are as follows.
Beat the Boys at 66/1
Flintoff at 66/1
Conna Castle at 100/1
Snowy Morning at16/1
Maljimar at 33/1
Priest’s Leap at 100/1
Leaving us with 12 horses to choose from. So we will try to narrow it down more with this last fact. We check how many horse’s have won a race with 11 or more horse’s in the race. The last 15 winners have done this. I check this out on the paddy tools and find one more to eliminate that been
Abbeybraney at 80/1
So that’s the end of my eliminationsafter using all the facts of the previous Grand Nationals as a guide I hope this was a bit of help and I wish you all the best for Saturdays Aintree Grand National I will leave you with the 11 horse’s that made the cut. They are as follows:
Ballyholland at 40/1
Big Fella Thanks at 7/1
Ballyfitz at 66/1
Ellersie George at 100/1
Arbor Supreme at 16/1
Can’t Buy Time at 20/1
Backstage at 25/1
Irish Raptor at 33/1
King Johns Castle at 40/1
If you could elaborate more on this race please let me know it may help us beat the bookies together.
